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<p>South Africa continues to face persistent unemployment, prompting the need to identify sectors capable of generating sustainable job creation. This study examines the extent to which tourism development, renewable energy production, and green technological progress influence unemployment in South Africa over the period 1996–2024. The analysis incorporates Green Total Factor Productivity (GTFP) as a sustainability-adjusted productivity measure to capture the broader technological and environmental dynamics affecting labor markets. Methodologically, the study employs the Kernel-based Regularised Least Squares (KRLS) machine learning approach to flexibly uncover nonlinear relationships without imposing restrictive functional forms, while the dynamic ARDL framework is used to validate robustness and long-run cointegration. The empirical results reveal that tourism activity, renewable energy consumption, government effectiveness, adult literacy, and financial development are all associated with reductions in unemployment, whereas GTFP exhibits a positive association with unemployment in the baseline estimation. KRLS and DYARDL findings confirm that tourism, renewable energy, GTFP, literacy, governance, and financial development significantly reduce unemployment in both the short and long run, while inflation increases unemployment in the short run but decreases it in the long run. These results highlight the combined role of sectoral development, institutional quality, and sustainability-oriented productivity in shaping labor-market outcomes. Accordingly, policymakers are encouraged to strengthen tourism-related investments and expand renewable energy adoption as part of a broader strategy to promote employment and support South Africa’s long-term development objectives.</p>

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Nexus between tourism, renewable energy, and unemployment in South Africa. Insight from KRLS analysis

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月16日

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  • Shahzad Mushtaq,
  • Faisal Sultan Qadri

摘要

South Africa continues to face persistent unemployment, prompting the need to identify sectors capable of generating sustainable job creation. This study examines the extent to which tourism development, renewable energy production, and green technological progress influence unemployment in South Africa over the period 1996–2024. The analysis incorporates Green Total Factor Productivity (GTFP) as a sustainability-adjusted productivity measure to capture the broader technological and environmental dynamics affecting labor markets. Methodologically, the study employs the Kernel-based Regularised Least Squares (KRLS) machine learning approach to flexibly uncover nonlinear relationships without imposing restrictive functional forms, while the dynamic ARDL framework is used to validate robustness and long-run cointegration. The empirical results reveal that tourism activity, renewable energy consumption, government effectiveness, adult literacy, and financial development are all associated with reductions in unemployment, whereas GTFP exhibits a positive association with unemployment in the baseline estimation. KRLS and DYARDL findings confirm that tourism, renewable energy, GTFP, literacy, governance, and financial development significantly reduce unemployment in both the short and long run, while inflation increases unemployment in the short run but decreases it in the long run. These results highlight the combined role of sectoral development, institutional quality, and sustainability-oriented productivity in shaping labor-market outcomes. Accordingly, policymakers are encouraged to strengthen tourism-related investments and expand renewable energy adoption as part of a broader strategy to promote employment and support South Africa’s long-term development objectives.