<p>As banks allocate capital globally, understanding how climate risk influences their lending’s environmental impact is critical for sustainable finance policy. Using panel data from 39 economies between 2005 and 2018, this study distinguishes between physical risk and transition risk to assess their effects on bank loans’ carbon footprints. The findings reveal that both risks reduce carbon footprints, but transition risk exerts 70% stronger effects than physical risk. Technology effect—not scale effect—drives this reduction: firms adopt low-carbon tech to access green financing. Additionally, those effects intensified post-Paris Agreement in 2015 and advanced economies, while digital tools help banks mitigate risks. This study emphasizes the importance of aligning financial regulation with climate goals to accelerate decarbonisation and highlight the critical role of banks in the low-carbon transition.</p>

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Does climate risk affect the carbon footprint of bank loans? Evidence from physical and transition risks

  • Huan Zhu,
  • Xinze Li,
  • Qiuyun Zhao

摘要

As banks allocate capital globally, understanding how climate risk influences their lending’s environmental impact is critical for sustainable finance policy. Using panel data from 39 economies between 2005 and 2018, this study distinguishes between physical risk and transition risk to assess their effects on bank loans’ carbon footprints. The findings reveal that both risks reduce carbon footprints, but transition risk exerts 70% stronger effects than physical risk. Technology effect—not scale effect—drives this reduction: firms adopt low-carbon tech to access green financing. Additionally, those effects intensified post-Paris Agreement in 2015 and advanced economies, while digital tools help banks mitigate risks. This study emphasizes the importance of aligning financial regulation with climate goals to accelerate decarbonisation and highlight the critical role of banks in the low-carbon transition.