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<p>Global economic uncertainties—such as militar conflicts and diplomatic disputes—can affect the cost of living, particularly food prices. This study investigates the impact of geopolitical risk (GPR) shocks on food prices in Brazil using a Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) model from February 2000 to September 2022. The results indicate that geopolitical shocks lead to higher food prices in Brazil. The estimates also suggest that trade partners and commodity prices (agricultural and oil) account for a substantial portion of the variation in Brazilian food prices. These findings highlight how geopolitical developments can drive up domestic food costs, increasing the cost of living.</p>

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When global tensions hit the table: geopolitical risk and Brazil’s food prices

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年11月24日

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  • Luccas Assis Attílio

摘要

Global economic uncertainties—such as militar conflicts and diplomatic disputes—can affect the cost of living, particularly food prices. This study investigates the impact of geopolitical risk (GPR) shocks on food prices in Brazil using a Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) model from February 2000 to September 2022. The results indicate that geopolitical shocks lead to higher food prices in Brazil. The estimates also suggest that trade partners and commodity prices (agricultural and oil) account for a substantial portion of the variation in Brazilian food prices. These findings highlight how geopolitical developments can drive up domestic food costs, increasing the cost of living.