<p>Enhancing the resilience of industrial chains is crucial for promoting high-quality development and safeguarding national security. This study utilizes the Multi-Regional Input-Output Tables compiled by the Asian Development Bank’s Multiregional Input-Output (ADB-MRIO) to assess the levels of domestic and international economic circulation, as well as the resilience of industrial chains. It also investigates how the economic model of “dual circulation” impacts industrial chain resilience. The findings indicate that dual circulation significantly enhances the resilience of industrial chains. This result remains statistically robust, even after conducting tests to address endogeneity issues, variable substitutions, variations in sample sizes, and changes in estimation methods. Mechanism analysis reveals that industrial linkages and technological innovation are the key intrinsic mechanisms through which the dual circulation economic model strengthens industrial chain resilience. Furthermore, heterogeneity analysis shows that, at the national level, the dual circulation model has a more pronounced effect on enhancing industrial chain resilience in non-developed countries. At the sectoral level, dual circulation has a more significant impact on bolstering the resilience of the service sector compared to others. Additionally, historical events such as the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic have, to some extent, amplified the effects of dual circulation on industrial chain resilience. The study also verifies the heterogeneity of circulation types. It finds that domestic economic circulation significantly enhances industrial chain resilience, while international economic circulation exhibits an inverted U-shaped relationship with resilience. Overall, this study provides an effective pathway for enhancing industrial chain resilience and offers valuable insights for accelerating the establishment of a new dual circulation development paradigm.</p>

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Economic dual circulation synergy and industry chain resilience: based on the GVC perspective

  • Lijun Ran,
  • Qi Zhang

摘要

Enhancing the resilience of industrial chains is crucial for promoting high-quality development and safeguarding national security. This study utilizes the Multi-Regional Input-Output Tables compiled by the Asian Development Bank’s Multiregional Input-Output (ADB-MRIO) to assess the levels of domestic and international economic circulation, as well as the resilience of industrial chains. It also investigates how the economic model of “dual circulation” impacts industrial chain resilience. The findings indicate that dual circulation significantly enhances the resilience of industrial chains. This result remains statistically robust, even after conducting tests to address endogeneity issues, variable substitutions, variations in sample sizes, and changes in estimation methods. Mechanism analysis reveals that industrial linkages and technological innovation are the key intrinsic mechanisms through which the dual circulation economic model strengthens industrial chain resilience. Furthermore, heterogeneity analysis shows that, at the national level, the dual circulation model has a more pronounced effect on enhancing industrial chain resilience in non-developed countries. At the sectoral level, dual circulation has a more significant impact on bolstering the resilience of the service sector compared to others. Additionally, historical events such as the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic have, to some extent, amplified the effects of dual circulation on industrial chain resilience. The study also verifies the heterogeneity of circulation types. It finds that domestic economic circulation significantly enhances industrial chain resilience, while international economic circulation exhibits an inverted U-shaped relationship with resilience. Overall, this study provides an effective pathway for enhancing industrial chain resilience and offers valuable insights for accelerating the establishment of a new dual circulation development paradigm.