Barrier spatial structure of co-occurring spawning of three small pelagic fish in the Northern Patagonia Estuarine Zone of Chile
摘要
The Northern Patagonia Estuarine Zone (NPEZ) of Chile, characterized by its complex geography and natural physical barriers, plays a crucial role in the spatial dynamics of small pelagic fish (SPF) spawning. This study was aimed at evaluating the non-stationary (barrier) spatial structure of spawning of three SPF species: anchoveta (Engraulis ringens), common sardine (Strangomera bentincki), and southern sardine (Sprattus fuegensis) in the NPEZ. Non-stationary barrier models explicitly treat coastlines, islands, and archipelagos as physical barriers that interrupt spatial autocorrelation across land, in contrast with conventional stationary, isotropic geostatistical models that assume spatial dependence is uniform in all directions. Egg count data from 128 systematically distributed stations during the 2014 spawning season were analyzed using non-stationary spatial models fitted with the Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation. Two models were compared: one assuming correlated realizations among species (M1) and another assuming independent realizations (M2). Model M2 showed better performance based on the Watanabe–Akaike Information Criterion and Deviance Information Criterion, indicating that the spawning of the three species tends to be spatially segregated. The results revealed that physical barriers significantly influenced the spatial distribution of spawning, with anchoveta concentrated near freshwater-influenced areas, common sardine in coastal areas with high topographic heterogeneity, and southern sardine in eastern coastal and central areas in the NPEZ. The spatial segregation observed in this study has important ecological and management implications, highlighting the need to consider habitat heterogeneity and the spatial dynamics of spawning when designing conservation and fishery management strategies in the NPEZ, such as delimiting species-specific, seasonally restricted spawning closures around key barrier-associated habitats (e.g., river mouths, sheltered bays, and channels).