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<p>Agricultural productivity in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is increasingly threatened by climate variability, with empirical studies being fragmented by methodological limitations to capture the complexity of this relationship. This study examines the effects of climate variables and their variability on agricultural Total Factor Productivity (TFP) growth across 20 sub-Saharan African countries over the period of 1990 to 2022. Historical panel datasets were sourced from FAOSTAT, World Development Indicators, and VisualCrossing Weather Databases. The study applied the estimates of Stochastic Production Frontier (SPF), implemented using Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) approach on Fare-Primont index numbers. Results indicate that increase in precipitation and precipitation variability negatively influence agricultural production. However, technological progress and improvements in production environments contribute positively to agricultural production across the region. Furthermore, evidence of decreasing returns to scale indicates structural inefficiencies, thus compounding the vulnerability to climatic shocks. The decomposition of agricultural TFP growth reveals that environmental changes driven by temperature and precipitation patterns are the predominant determinants of productivity changes. The study recommends the need for urgent promotion of climate smart agriculture practices, regional partnerships, and strengthened climate information services, to foster sustainable productivity gains and enhance agriculture resilience to adverse climate change effects in SSA.</p>

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Estimating the Effects of Climate Variables on Agricultural Total Factor Productivity Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月17日

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  • Grant Chukwuemeka Onyenma,
  • Onesmo Selejio,
  • Peter Ayodeji Ekunwe,
  • Edmond Alavaisha

摘要

Agricultural productivity in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is increasingly threatened by climate variability, with empirical studies being fragmented by methodological limitations to capture the complexity of this relationship. This study examines the effects of climate variables and their variability on agricultural Total Factor Productivity (TFP) growth across 20 sub-Saharan African countries over the period of 1990 to 2022. Historical panel datasets were sourced from FAOSTAT, World Development Indicators, and VisualCrossing Weather Databases. The study applied the estimates of Stochastic Production Frontier (SPF), implemented using Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) approach on Fare-Primont index numbers. Results indicate that increase in precipitation and precipitation variability negatively influence agricultural production. However, technological progress and improvements in production environments contribute positively to agricultural production across the region. Furthermore, evidence of decreasing returns to scale indicates structural inefficiencies, thus compounding the vulnerability to climatic shocks. The decomposition of agricultural TFP growth reveals that environmental changes driven by temperature and precipitation patterns are the predominant determinants of productivity changes. The study recommends the need for urgent promotion of climate smart agriculture practices, regional partnerships, and strengthened climate information services, to foster sustainable productivity gains and enhance agriculture resilience to adverse climate change effects in SSA.