Occupational Heat Stress and Employment Dynamics in Italy
摘要
This paper adopts an occupation-based approach to analyse the impact of heatwaves on short-run local employment dynamics in Italy. Using quarterly province-level panel data combined with occupational survey information, econometric analyses show that prolonged heatwaves significantly reduce local employment rates, with largest effects among workers in positions more exposed to heat stress. Employment losses are substantial among top-exposure occupations in agriculture and construction, but notable effects also emerge in relatively less exposed jobs, particularly in hospitality and trade. Interestingly, comparing absolute vs. relative heatwaves provide evidence of local adaptation, more limited in agriculture than in construction and services. Further, the decomposition between unemployment and inactivity shows that labour-supply adjustments are crucial in construction and play an important role in both agriculture and hospitality. Results are robust to specifications accounting for impact persistency and non-linearity, as well as to alternative temperature measures.