Effectiveness and Heterogeneous Effects of Purchase Grants for Electric Vehicles

We evaluate German purchase subsidies for battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) using data on new vehicle registrations in Germany during 2015-2022. We account for confounding time trends and interacting EU-level \(\text {CO}_{2}\) standards using neighboring countries as a control group. We find that 40% of BEV and 25% of PHEV registrations were subsidy-induced. The program had strong distributional effects, with greater uptake in wealthier and greener counties. We estimate implied abatement costs of 870 euro per ton of \(\text {CO}_{2}\) for BEVs and 2,470 euro for PHEVs, suggesting that policy makers should re-balance support schemes away from PHEVs.