<p>Understanding the patterns of children’s computational thinking (CT) developmental trajectories and their contextual influences is crucial for enhancing educational strategies and outcomes. This study investigates the patterns of CT developmental trajectories among children, identifying unique CT profiles and their associations with contextual factors in programming education. Through latent profile analysis on a two-wave longitudinal Survey of 817 primary and secondary students in China with an average age of 13, we delineated three CT profiles: Gradual Decliners, Consistent Performers, and Steady Climbers, each showing distinct developmental trajectories over a semester. We analyzed the heterogeneity of these profiles in relation to technological (i.e., programming competition participation, programming modality, and programming experience), teacher (i.e., perceived teacher support in autonomy, relatedness, competence), and personal factors (i.e., gender, grade, CT perspectives, self-regulation skills). ANOVA results revealed that greater programming competition participation, more programming experience, stronger perceived teacher support, better CT perspectives and self-regulation skills were linked to positive CT development trends. Male and younger students also showed greater CT improvement. Our findings enrich theoretical understanding of children’s CT developmental patterns and their contextual influences, offering valuable insights for future CT education research and practical strategies for educators to foster CT skills among children in primary and secondary education.</p>