Geographic Disparities in the Supply and Demand of Gastroenterologists Across the United States: Forecasting a National Shortage
摘要
There is a lack of contemporary research on the supply and demand of gastroenterologists in the United States (US). We hypothesized that significant differences in gastroenterologist workforce adequacy would exist across the US especially in non-metropolitan areas and certain identifiable states.
MethodsWe conducted a cross-sectional study of gastroenterologists with the Health Workforce Simulation Model. Adequacy was defined as the ratio of supply over demand for gastroenterologists, which was assessed from 2025 to 2037. Chi-squared tests were used to compare gastroenterologist workforce adequacy by geography.
ResultsIn 2025, non-metropolitan areas had lower gastroenterologist adequacy than metropolitan areas (29.7% vs 106%, P < 0.001). Regionally, the South had the lowest gastroenterologist adequacy and the Northeast had the highest (87% vs 134%, P < 0.001). By 2037, non-metropolitan areas were projected to have lower gastroenterologist adequacy than metropolitan areas (29.4% vs 102%, P < 0.001). The South was projected to have the lowest gastroenterologist adequacy compared to the Northeast, which had the highest (80% vs 133%, P < 0.001). By 2037, the states with the lowest gastroenterologist adequacy were Nevada (43.5%), Alaska (50.0%), and Idaho (53.3%).
ConclusionShortages are anticipated for US gastroenterologists, which are greatest in non-metropolitan areas and certain identified states. Additional strategies are needed to increase the supply of gastroenterologists in areas with identified deficiencies.