Serial Liver Stiffness Measurement and Fibrosis-4 Scores in Metabolic Dysfunction-Associated Steatotic Liver Disease

In patients with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD), there are limited data on how changes in FIB4 and liver stiffness measurement (LSM) correlate in non-biopsy cohorts.

Our objective was to evaluate associations between changes in FIB4 and LSM in MASLD patients.

We included MASLD patients with serial VCTE from 2015–2022. The primary predictors were change in FIB4 and presence of diabetes, obesity, and high alanine aminotransferase (ALT). The primary outcome, applied only to patients with LSM1 < 8 kPa, was incident significant fibrosis (SF) defined as a ≥ 20% increase in LSM2 vs. LSM1 and LSM2 ≥ 8 kPa. A secondary outcome was LSM progression with a similar definition but applied to all participants, not only those with LSM1 < 8 kPa.

Of 285 included patients, 216 had LSM1 < 8 kPa and were included in the primary analysis; of these, 34 (16%) had incident SF. Changes in FIB4 correlated with changes in LSM (R = 0.16, p = 0.016). Independent predictors of incident SF included comorbid diabetes mellitus (OR 2.43, 95% CI 1.04–6.56), obesity (OR 3.88, 95% CI 1.63–9.25), and baseline ALT ≥ 30 (OR 8.55, 95% CI 1.10–66.29). A model including ALT, diabetes, and obesity outperformed a model with FIB4 change alone.

Among patients with MASLD, changes in FIB4 correlated with changes in LSM but more significant correlates of incident significant fibrosis included diabetes mellitus, obesity, and high baseline ALT.