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<p>The blind box economy, exemplified by Pop Mart’s rapid growth from RMB 158 million in 2017 to RMB 13 billion in 2024, represents a novel consumption paradigm blending randomness, emotional value, and social currency. This study analyzes its business model, psychological mechanisms and impacts on adolescents, who exhibit heightened vulnerability due to underdeveloped impulse control and social influence via key opinion leaders (KOLs). Employing an agent-based simulation across six canonical network topologies, we validate that psychological and social sensitivities alone suffice to generate significant teen–adult purchasing disparities, absent budgetary constraints. Drawing parallels with global loot box regulations in Japan, Belgium, the Netherlands, China, and some other countries, we propose data-driven policies: mandatory probability disclosures, age-gated caps, KOL guardrails, secondary-market oversight, and supervisory analytics. These measures aim to mitigate addiction risks while fostering a responsible IP ecosystem, transitioning from scarcity-driven speculation to culturally anchored, sustainable consumption.</p>

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The Blind Box Phenomenon: Psychological Drivers, Social Network Dynamics, and Adolescent Consumption Risks

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年12月16日

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  • Yuancheng Si

摘要

The blind box economy, exemplified by Pop Mart’s rapid growth from RMB 158 million in 2017 to RMB 13 billion in 2024, represents a novel consumption paradigm blending randomness, emotional value, and social currency. This study analyzes its business model, psychological mechanisms and impacts on adolescents, who exhibit heightened vulnerability due to underdeveloped impulse control and social influence via key opinion leaders (KOLs). Employing an agent-based simulation across six canonical network topologies, we validate that psychological and social sensitivities alone suffice to generate significant teen–adult purchasing disparities, absent budgetary constraints. Drawing parallels with global loot box regulations in Japan, Belgium, the Netherlands, China, and some other countries, we propose data-driven policies: mandatory probability disclosures, age-gated caps, KOL guardrails, secondary-market oversight, and supervisory analytics. These measures aim to mitigate addiction risks while fostering a responsible IP ecosystem, transitioning from scarcity-driven speculation to culturally anchored, sustainable consumption.