<p>Estimating the Phillips Curve in the Euro Area presents unique challenges arising from the coexistence of a shared monetary policy and distinct national fiscal policies. Traditional approaches either aggregate data for the entire Euro Area, overlooking country-level heterogeneity, or estimate separate Phillips Curves for each country, disregarding common monetary dynamics. To address these limitations, this study introduces a hierarchical, multilevel framework that accounts for both group-level (Euro Area) and country-specific variability. Comparing pooled, non-pooled, and multilevel approaches, I find that the non-pooled method underperforms due to high variance and lack of robustness. While the pooled approach marginally outperforms the multilevel model in predictive accuracy, it imposes restrictive assumptions of homogeneity across countries, limiting its utility for country-specific analysis. The multilevel approach provides a balanced alternative, offering insights at both the Euro Area and individual country levels.</p>

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On the Phillips Curve in the Euro Area

  • Josep Navarro-Ortiz

摘要

Estimating the Phillips Curve in the Euro Area presents unique challenges arising from the coexistence of a shared monetary policy and distinct national fiscal policies. Traditional approaches either aggregate data for the entire Euro Area, overlooking country-level heterogeneity, or estimate separate Phillips Curves for each country, disregarding common monetary dynamics. To address these limitations, this study introduces a hierarchical, multilevel framework that accounts for both group-level (Euro Area) and country-specific variability. Comparing pooled, non-pooled, and multilevel approaches, I find that the non-pooled method underperforms due to high variance and lack of robustness. While the pooled approach marginally outperforms the multilevel model in predictive accuracy, it imposes restrictive assumptions of homogeneity across countries, limiting its utility for country-specific analysis. The multilevel approach provides a balanced alternative, offering insights at both the Euro Area and individual country levels.