Unraveling Currency Behavior in Emerging Economies: A Data-Driven Approach with Monte Carlo and Fama-French Models
摘要
This study explores the integration of Monte Carlo simulations with the Fama-French six-factor model to forecast the returns of three currency pairs: Concerning emerging markets, we have observed USDPKR, PKRUSD, and MYRPKR. As will be discussed in the following presentation, foreign exchange rates are inherently unknowable, and members of the foreign exchange market are characteristically complex, which makes traditional strategies inappropriately simplistic. This research employs Monte Carlo simulations in stochastic alterations and the Fama-French factor in systematic risk factors. The findings point out that, although the use of these simulations can approximate basic tendencies of the exchange rate, the models are flawed when it comes to the real-world volatility for both PKRUSD and MYRPKR. The examination of the results for the USDPKR showed that it has been the best-predicted pair surpassing the naive prediction models. These results call for improvements in the existing models and valuation techniques and the incorporation of more elaborate independent variables, as demonstrated in the findings. This research provides a meaningful addition to the topics on prediction modeling in the field of Finance for investors and policymakers managing uncertainties associated with emerging market currencies. Future development areas also encompass the introduction of the machine learning approach and the further investigation of macroeconomic and geopolitical factors to improve the model precision rates.