Cross-Sector Liquidity Tail Risk Contagion Network and Forecasting in the Chinese Stock Market
摘要
Despite the fact that liquidity risk contagion among industries is an important cause of liquidity depletion in the stock market, the relevant studies are far from sufficient. Therefore, this paper measures the liquidity tail risk of each industry in the Chinese stock market, constructs and analyses the inter-industry liquidity risk correlation network in the Chinese stock market, systematically analyses stock market shocks from the perspective of liquidity risk contagion, and finally predicts liquidity risk using RF, LSTM and SVM models. As shown by the results of the study, the liquidity risk correlation level is higher among industries with strong dependence, especially between upstream and downstream industries; the concentration of the liquidity risk network has been decreasing in recent years; the structure of the risk network has a tendency to stabilize; and the liquidity risk contagion can demonstrate a certain degree of predictability, with the performance of different prediction models having their own strengths and weaknesses, whereas the predictability of the risk network structure is relatively low.