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<p>A robust binary choice logit model yields one-quarter-ahead probability forecasts of the U.S. business cycle. None of the regressors are revised and only one is seasonally adjusted. The model encompasses 72&#xa0;years and yields a 99% proportion of correct categorical forecasts relative to the NBER chronology during 192 quarters (1976Q1 - 2023Q4). Forecasts lead those from the Sahm indicator by an average of 5.2&#xa0;months. The paper presents a new scoring rule that penalizes missing the quarter of the peak more heavily than other quarters.</p>

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Robust Quarterly Recession Forecasts of the U. S. Economy

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年9月8日

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  • Rolando F. Peláez

摘要

A robust binary choice logit model yields one-quarter-ahead probability forecasts of the U.S. business cycle. None of the regressors are revised and only one is seasonally adjusted. The model encompasses 72 years and yields a 99% proportion of correct categorical forecasts relative to the NBER chronology during 192 quarters (1976Q1 - 2023Q4). Forecasts lead those from the Sahm indicator by an average of 5.2 months. The paper presents a new scoring rule that penalizes missing the quarter of the peak more heavily than other quarters.