Liquidity Risk in Chinese Banking System Based on Multiple Derivatives
摘要
It is difficult to accurately characterize the overlap of multiple risk contagion channels in the banking system based on a single derivative perspective, and the interaction of different types of derivatives may exacerbate risk contagion in the banking system. Meanwhile, existing studies have neglected the order of payment of the initial margin and the variation margin for derivatives, which not only affects the liquidity allocation of banks but also may underestimate the systemic risk. In this paper, we construct a banking network model with multiple derivatives margin requirements to study the liquidity risk contagion caused by margin calls on interbank derivatives transactions and the impact of initial margin and different payment methods on systemic liquidity risk. The study shows that the full payment method is closer to reality than the partial payment method, and the partial payment method will underestimate systemic liquidity risk. The initial margin reduces the system liquidity gap, decreases system liquidity risk, and increases the system’s resilience. Half of the liquidity gap in the banking system can be avoided with external regulators’ moderation. Moreover, increasing the cash buffer is more effective in reducing systemic risk than increasing the initial margin.