Modelling Causality for Foreign Direct Investment with Hybrid TCDF-Bradford-Hill Criteria
摘要
The attraction of foreign direct investment is important to economic stability and growth. The biggest challenges in analyzing investment attractiveness are related to the diversity of its determinants. Assessment becomes a complex task due to various interactions and limitations or peculiarities of mathematical models used in causality detection. So, the central question is the presence and interpretation of the detected causal relationship. Since some models are only applicable to find linear relationships or lacks ability to grasp the time component of the causal link, this paper aims at combining the Temporal Causal Discovery Framework with Bradford-Hill criterion and also incorporating interview of the experts to offer a more universal technique for causality detection. The findings show that each part of the proposed model can provide valuable information on what economic factors may cause the change in foreign direct investment in a particular country.