<p>Technological innovation, transformation, and enterprise upgrading are crucial drivers for advancing industrial structure and fostering high-quality economic development. However, achieving these goals is challenging, as they are closely linked to government subsidies, additional profits, market dynamics, innovation costs, and risks. To analyze the evolution of firms’ strengthened innovation strategies under uncertainty, this study constructs a stochastic evolutionary game model based on the Moran process. The model explores the internal conditions and driving mechanisms behind firms’ decisions to adopt a strengthened innovation strategy under two scenarios: one dominated by benefits and the other by stochastic factors. Simulation results reveal that innovation costs and market size significantly influence the strategic evolution across different scenarios. Specifically, when the benefits of adopting a strengthened innovation strategy exceed a certain multiple of the associated additional costs and risks, this strategy becomes the dominant choice in both cases. Conversely, higher innovation costs and larger market scales discourage firms from pursuing strengthened innovation strategies. This study addresses gaps in research on the evolution of transformation and upgrading strategies driven by enterprise technological innovation within a stochastic evolutionary game framework. The findings provide valuable insights for policymakers seeking to encourage enterprise transformation and upgrading, as well as for firms aiming to enhance innovation and achieve sustainable development.</p>