Firearms policy and regional structures: how Brazil responds in divergent ways
摘要
This article investigates the impacts of gun control policies on homicide rates in Brazilian regions, considering local cultural and political structures as moderators of the effectiveness of public policies. Using the Differences in Differences (DiD) model and a data panel from the 27 Brazilian states between 1996 and 2022, the evolution of homicide rates in relation to public security spending was analyzed. The results indicate that, while in the Southeast, gun control policies were associated with a significant reduction in lethal violence, in the Northeast, a significant increase in homicide rates was observed. In the other regions, the effects were not statistically significant. The analysis suggests that regional political culture and the culture of honor decisively influence the effectiveness of security policies, reinforcing the need for differentiated approaches for different sociocultural contexts. The study also points out limitations related to data aggregation and suggests future research with more localized and qualitative approaches.