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<p>China’s punitive culture of repression and severity, and its retention of the death penalty, are rooted in an entrenched belief in the deterrent value of drastic disciplinary measures. Yet this rationale, which underlies China’s continued use of harsh punishment in contemporary, rapidly changing society, has received little empirical scrutiny or systematic testing. To address this lacuna, we draw on a uniquely formulated set of provincial panel data from 2014 to 2019 to test the deterrence hypothesis with respect to Chinese harsh punishments. Overall, our results suggest that Chinese punishment has modestly deterred serious crime in recent years, but it does so primarily through the certainty component of punishment rather than the severity dimension. After controlling for severity-related variables, the speed of punishment is still found to deter the most serious violent crimes. In addition, we find that the Chinese death penalty has little significant deterrent effect on homicide or robbery rates. Research and policy implications are also discussed.</p>

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Revisiting crime, punishment and deterrence in a rapidly changing society: new evidence from panel data analysis in China

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年8月7日

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  • Jun Li,
  • Jize Jiang

摘要

China’s punitive culture of repression and severity, and its retention of the death penalty, are rooted in an entrenched belief in the deterrent value of drastic disciplinary measures. Yet this rationale, which underlies China’s continued use of harsh punishment in contemporary, rapidly changing society, has received little empirical scrutiny or systematic testing. To address this lacuna, we draw on a uniquely formulated set of provincial panel data from 2014 to 2019 to test the deterrence hypothesis with respect to Chinese harsh punishments. Overall, our results suggest that Chinese punishment has modestly deterred serious crime in recent years, but it does so primarily through the certainty component of punishment rather than the severity dimension. After controlling for severity-related variables, the speed of punishment is still found to deter the most serious violent crimes. In addition, we find that the Chinese death penalty has little significant deterrent effect on homicide or robbery rates. Research and policy implications are also discussed.