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<p>The tourism sector in France plays a crucial role in driving the country's social and economic development. However, terrorism has been empirically shown to have a detrimental impact on the tourism industry, particularly by affecting the overall quality of life and reducing opportunities for job creation and business growth. This study investigates the impact of terrorism on tourism demand in France using quarterly data from 1994 to 2019. To address multicollinearity issues, the research employs principal component analysis (PCA) to construct a terrorism index based on three terrorism proxies. The study's ARDL-based findings confirm a long-run co-integration among the "3&#xa0;T" variables: terrorism, tourism, and trade. Specifically, terrorism has a significant negative impact on tourism demand in both the short and long term, whereas trade exhibits a significant positive relationship with tourism demand. These results are consistent and robust across the fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) method. Furthermore, the Toda-Yamamoto (Modified Wald) test supports the feedback hypothesis, indicating bidirectional causality between terrorism and tourism. Additionally, a unidirectional relationship is observed between trade and terrorism. The findings of this study can serve as a valuable resource for French authorities in formulating pragmatic policies to mitigate the impact of terrorism on the tourism industry.</p>

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Terrorism and Tourism Growth in France: A Critical Dilemma and Criminal Policy Directions

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年3月6日

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  • Bushra Zulfiqar,
  • Md Monirul Islam,
  • Mara Madaleno,
  • Farrukh Shahzad,
  • Zeeshan Fareed

摘要

The tourism sector in France plays a crucial role in driving the country's social and economic development. However, terrorism has been empirically shown to have a detrimental impact on the tourism industry, particularly by affecting the overall quality of life and reducing opportunities for job creation and business growth. This study investigates the impact of terrorism on tourism demand in France using quarterly data from 1994 to 2019. To address multicollinearity issues, the research employs principal component analysis (PCA) to construct a terrorism index based on three terrorism proxies. The study's ARDL-based findings confirm a long-run co-integration among the "3 T" variables: terrorism, tourism, and trade. Specifically, terrorism has a significant negative impact on tourism demand in both the short and long term, whereas trade exhibits a significant positive relationship with tourism demand. These results are consistent and robust across the fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) method. Furthermore, the Toda-Yamamoto (Modified Wald) test supports the feedback hypothesis, indicating bidirectional causality between terrorism and tourism. Additionally, a unidirectional relationship is observed between trade and terrorism. The findings of this study can serve as a valuable resource for French authorities in formulating pragmatic policies to mitigate the impact of terrorism on the tourism industry.