HMM-CPM: a cloud instance resource prediction method tracing the workload trends via hidden Markov model

Accurate prediction of cloud resource instances is becoming increasingly important for public cloud users and cloud service providers, because it touches on the reasonable reservation of cloud resources with minimize costs. However, current methods do not predict the instance types of cloud resources based on the application workloads from users, and less consider the characteristics of workload data changes in the real-time prediction. To solve these problems, this paper proposes an application workload-dependent cloud resource instance prediction model to predict appropriate cloud instance resource usage in a timely manner. Firstly, we adopt a trend degree (TD) to classify all requested workloads into three types of wave trend patterns. Next, a Hidden Markov model based cloud resource prediction method (HMM-CPM) tracing the requested workload trends is presented. Finally, the reasonable cloud instance types following the patterns of the requested workloads can be predicted. The simulation results show that the proposed method can predict cloud resource instance types in the scenario with certain workload fluctuation, and the prediction accuracy is higher than the existing related approaches.