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<p>Climate change reflects worldwide spectacle having an extensive effect on marginalized population which are mostly inhabited in disaster-prone areas of developing countries like Pakistan. Muzaffargarh region’s main agro-based production region appears at risk because of recurrent and forceful sudden-onset and slow-onset climate related natural disasters. Inadequate discussion prevails regarding associated influence of slow-onset and sudden-onset hazards on migration pattern generally to Pakistan and particularly about Muzaffargarh region. The objective of this research is to examine the association in climate-induced disaster events and migration decisions of flood-prone communities of Muzaffargarh. Data of 380 respondents was collected by employing choice experiment survey and applying mixed logit model for empirical estimation. Climate `events related to potential destination-based social networks, migration type, migration distance, difference in potential destination, and income variances in Muzaffargarh which were five attributes constructed for estimation of migration scenario. Findings of mix logit model estimates illustrated as income gap and migration distance affected residents’ migration decisions. Sudden change in extreme-onset and slow change in extreme-onset was not as much expected to encourage migration rather than moderate-level sudden and change in slow-onset. Residents were eager to migrate and required 13.87% income increase to migrate in response to slow change in extreme-onset while required an 8.96% income increase for sudden extreme-onset change. Some significant policy measures are necessary to back migrants in receiving region with better-quality social defense structure, favor migrants’ transfer family circle, transformative adaptation in based areas, and strengthen community-determined adaptation inventiveness in Muzaffargarh. Conclusions from this research work can back to current literature on association in ecological disasters and mobility which can sustain policymakers to formulate climate-based feasible policies that backs vulnerable communities.</p>

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Climate-induced disaster events and migration decisions of flood-prone communities of Punjab, Pakistan; an application of choice experiments approach

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月19日

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  • Dilshad Ahmad,
  • Anjum Razzaq,
  • Abur Rauf,
  • Muhammad Afzal

摘要

Climate change reflects worldwide spectacle having an extensive effect on marginalized population which are mostly inhabited in disaster-prone areas of developing countries like Pakistan. Muzaffargarh region’s main agro-based production region appears at risk because of recurrent and forceful sudden-onset and slow-onset climate related natural disasters. Inadequate discussion prevails regarding associated influence of slow-onset and sudden-onset hazards on migration pattern generally to Pakistan and particularly about Muzaffargarh region. The objective of this research is to examine the association in climate-induced disaster events and migration decisions of flood-prone communities of Muzaffargarh. Data of 380 respondents was collected by employing choice experiment survey and applying mixed logit model for empirical estimation. Climate `events related to potential destination-based social networks, migration type, migration distance, difference in potential destination, and income variances in Muzaffargarh which were five attributes constructed for estimation of migration scenario. Findings of mix logit model estimates illustrated as income gap and migration distance affected residents’ migration decisions. Sudden change in extreme-onset and slow change in extreme-onset was not as much expected to encourage migration rather than moderate-level sudden and change in slow-onset. Residents were eager to migrate and required 13.87% income increase to migrate in response to slow change in extreme-onset while required an 8.96% income increase for sudden extreme-onset change. Some significant policy measures are necessary to back migrants in receiving region with better-quality social defense structure, favor migrants’ transfer family circle, transformative adaptation in based areas, and strengthen community-determined adaptation inventiveness in Muzaffargarh. Conclusions from this research work can back to current literature on association in ecological disasters and mobility which can sustain policymakers to formulate climate-based feasible policies that backs vulnerable communities.