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<p>Climate change threatens wheat production and food security in sub-Saharan Africa. Understanding its impacts and identifying effective adaptation options are vital for climate-resilient agriculture. This study evaluated projected climate change effects on wheat productivity and management responses in Ethiopia’s central highlands using the DSSAT-CERES-Wheat model. Field experiments (2021–2022) at four sites (Kulumsa, Ambo, Holeta, and Fitche) with three improved cultivars (Hidase, Picaflor, and Alidoro) informed simulations under varying planting dates and nitrogen levels. Baseline (1984–2021) and future climates (2040–2069) were represented by 17 global climate models under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The model performed well (index of agreement 0.87–0.98; nRMSE 2.2–4.2% for phenology, 21.0–26.5% for yield). Projected yield changes for Picaflor by the 2050s ranged from − 46.7% at Kulumsa to + 11.0% at Fitche under current practices, while elevated CO₂ (571 ppm) increased yields by up to 34.4%, indicating carbon fertilization benefits. Optimal planting dates for medium-maturing cultivars were June 20–30, and raising nitrogen from 92 to 138&#xa0;kg N ha⁻¹ reduced yield losses. Combining optimized planting and nitrogen management enhances yield stability under future climates. The study provides site-specific insights to guide adaptive strategies and strengthen food security in Ethiopia’s wheat systems.</p>

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Assessing climate change impacts on wheat productivity and adaptive management in Ethiopia’s central highlands: insights from multi-model DSSAT simulations

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年8月5日

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  • Girma Megersa Geleta

摘要

Climate change threatens wheat production and food security in sub-Saharan Africa. Understanding its impacts and identifying effective adaptation options are vital for climate-resilient agriculture. This study evaluated projected climate change effects on wheat productivity and management responses in Ethiopia’s central highlands using the DSSAT-CERES-Wheat model. Field experiments (2021–2022) at four sites (Kulumsa, Ambo, Holeta, and Fitche) with three improved cultivars (Hidase, Picaflor, and Alidoro) informed simulations under varying planting dates and nitrogen levels. Baseline (1984–2021) and future climates (2040–2069) were represented by 17 global climate models under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The model performed well (index of agreement 0.87–0.98; nRMSE 2.2–4.2% for phenology, 21.0–26.5% for yield). Projected yield changes for Picaflor by the 2050s ranged from − 46.7% at Kulumsa to + 11.0% at Fitche under current practices, while elevated CO₂ (571 ppm) increased yields by up to 34.4%, indicating carbon fertilization benefits. Optimal planting dates for medium-maturing cultivars were June 20–30, and raising nitrogen from 92 to 138 kg N ha⁻¹ reduced yield losses. Combining optimized planting and nitrogen management enhances yield stability under future climates. The study provides site-specific insights to guide adaptive strategies and strengthen food security in Ethiopia’s wheat systems.