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<p>Small hydropower plants (SHPs) are considered to be among the least environmentally harmful energy production facilities. Their role has gained increasing importance amid global climate change and the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This study assesses the potential development of SHPs in European river basins in the light of the hydrological and climatic changes that are projected to occur by the end of the twenty-first century. The research is based on the RESTOR Hydro project database, which identifies nearly 70,000 locations of historical hydropower sites, including abandoned water mills and sawmills. Using GIS-based geostatistical analyses, this study evaluates hydropower potential across 39 European hydrographic regions. The findings indicate strong geographical variability in SHP potential, with conditions being most favourable in Western and Central Europe. However, projected temperature increases and changes in precipitation patterns may pose challenges, particularly in Southern Europe. Despite potential reductions in water availability, SHPs could enhance water retention, thereby reducing seasonal water deficits. The results underline the necessity of region-specific approaches to SHP development, considering both environmental and socio-economic factors. The study provides a crucial foundation for future policymaking in renewable energy expansion in Europe.</p> Graphical Abstract <p></p>

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Potential opportunities for the development of small hydropower plants in Europe in the context of further climate warming

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月3日

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  • Włodzimierz Juśkiewicz,
  • Włodzimierz Marszelewski

摘要

Small hydropower plants (SHPs) are considered to be among the least environmentally harmful energy production facilities. Their role has gained increasing importance amid global climate change and the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This study assesses the potential development of SHPs in European river basins in the light of the hydrological and climatic changes that are projected to occur by the end of the twenty-first century. The research is based on the RESTOR Hydro project database, which identifies nearly 70,000 locations of historical hydropower sites, including abandoned water mills and sawmills. Using GIS-based geostatistical analyses, this study evaluates hydropower potential across 39 European hydrographic regions. The findings indicate strong geographical variability in SHP potential, with conditions being most favourable in Western and Central Europe. However, projected temperature increases and changes in precipitation patterns may pose challenges, particularly in Southern Europe. Despite potential reductions in water availability, SHPs could enhance water retention, thereby reducing seasonal water deficits. The results underline the necessity of region-specific approaches to SHP development, considering both environmental and socio-economic factors. The study provides a crucial foundation for future policymaking in renewable energy expansion in Europe.

Graphical Abstract