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<p>Urbanization introduces systematic bias into surface air temperature (SAT) observations across China, potentially compromising the comprehension of anthropogenic climate change causes and the reliability of observation-constrained future projections. This study conducts a rigorous detection and attribution analysis using an urbanization-bias adjusted SAT dataset alongside CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) model simulations to quantify external forcing contributions to China’s regional background warming since the 1960s. Results robustly detect the anthropogenic forcing signal, separable from natural forcing, on both annual and seasonal scales. Greenhouse gases are identified as the dominant driver of observed warming. A detectable cooling effect from anthropogenic aerosols is confined to summer mean SAT. Utilizing these attribution results to constrain future projections under a moderate emission scenario (SSP2-4.5) indicates China’s background climate will warm by 1.60&#xa0;°C above current levels by mid-century (2041–2060) and 2.51&#xa0;°C by late-century (2081–2100). Critically, this constrained warming magnitude is 14% lower annually and 13–22% lower seasonally compared to projections derived from unadjusted observations. This discrepancy demonstrates that previous studies likely overestimated future warming over China due to unaccounted urbanization bias in the observational baseline. The methodology—correcting urbanization bias for detection, attribution, and projection—provides a more accurate assessment of anthropogenic climate change impacts in China. These findings are particularly valuable for other regions experiencing similar urbanization-induced distortions in recorded warming trends.</p>

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Anthropogenic warming of China and constrained future projection: updated investigation based on urbanization-bias adjusted observations and CMIP6 models

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月2日

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  • Jintao Zhang,
  • Guoyu Ren,
  • Qinglong You,
  • Kangmin Wen

摘要

Urbanization introduces systematic bias into surface air temperature (SAT) observations across China, potentially compromising the comprehension of anthropogenic climate change causes and the reliability of observation-constrained future projections. This study conducts a rigorous detection and attribution analysis using an urbanization-bias adjusted SAT dataset alongside CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) model simulations to quantify external forcing contributions to China’s regional background warming since the 1960s. Results robustly detect the anthropogenic forcing signal, separable from natural forcing, on both annual and seasonal scales. Greenhouse gases are identified as the dominant driver of observed warming. A detectable cooling effect from anthropogenic aerosols is confined to summer mean SAT. Utilizing these attribution results to constrain future projections under a moderate emission scenario (SSP2-4.5) indicates China’s background climate will warm by 1.60 °C above current levels by mid-century (2041–2060) and 2.51 °C by late-century (2081–2100). Critically, this constrained warming magnitude is 14% lower annually and 13–22% lower seasonally compared to projections derived from unadjusted observations. This discrepancy demonstrates that previous studies likely overestimated future warming over China due to unaccounted urbanization bias in the observational baseline. The methodology—correcting urbanization bias for detection, attribution, and projection—provides a more accurate assessment of anthropogenic climate change impacts in China. These findings are particularly valuable for other regions experiencing similar urbanization-induced distortions in recorded warming trends.