From mitigation to adaptation: network models of their interrelations with climate anxiety, future anticipation, and intolerance of uncertainty
摘要
Climate change represents an unprecedented threat, with rising levels of climate anxiety increasingly reported. Psychological research has largely examined links between climate anxiety and mitigation behaviors, while comparatively neglecting adaptation behaviors, which involve preparing for inevitable climate impacts. Yet ethological perspectives and core theories of anxiety emphasize its adaptive function in promoting preparedness and proactive coping with threats, particularly under uncertainty. Building on this framework, we examined whether intolerance of uncertainty (IU) and pessimistic future anticipation shape the association between climate anxiety and adaptation versus mitigation behaviors. In a preregistered study of 968 French-speaking adults from Western Europe, we applied two complementary computational approaches: (1) a Gaussian graphical model to estimate conditional associations among climate anxiety, IU components (prospective and inhibitory), pessimistic future anticipation, perceived experience of climate change, and adaptation and mitigation behaviors; and (2) a directed acyclic graph to generate a data-driven putative structure of the probabilistic dependencies among these variables (hypothesis-generating). Across both models, prospective IU—reflecting proactive information-seeking and planning in the face of uncertainty—was central within our two computational network models, and positively associated with climate anxiety and adaptation behaviors. Conversely, inhibitory IU (characterized by paralysis in uncertainty) was comparatively peripheral. These findings highlight a potentially key psychological pathway linking climate anxiety to adaptive preparedness, and underscore the value of network modeling for refining hypotheses about when climate anxiety, future anticipation, and IU relate to adaptation versus mitigation.