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<p>Understanding long-term air temperature trends is critical for addressing the increasing climate-related challenges facing agriculture, water resources, and infrastructure. This study analyzed over a century of historical daily air temperature data (1892–2022) from 122 weather stations across Florida using NOAAs GHCN-Daily database to investigate spatial, seasonal, and temporal climate trends, including potential evapotranspiration (PET). Over the past 30 years, Florida has experienced statistically significant warming, with annual average air temperature rising by approximately 0.4 °C (1%) relative to the long-term average. Minimum air temperatures increased more rapidly than maximum air temperatures, indicating a pronounced trend of nighttime warming, a key signature of climate change. These trends were most pronounced in South Florida, where concurrent increases in PET suggest growing agricultural water demand and a northward shift in hardiness zones. In contrast, portions of North Florida exhibited cooling in maximum and minimum air temperatures, likely influenced by Arctic air intrusions and regional atmospheric variability. A statistically significant changepoint around 2014 marked the onset of an accelerated warming phase across much of the state. These findings underscore Florida’s climatic complexity and regional heterogeneity, emphasizing the need for tailored, data-driven adaptation strategies. By providing a high-resolution, region-specific assessment of air temperature and evaporative demand, this study offers valuable insights for climate resilience planning in agriculture, water management, and infrastructure development.</p>

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Spatial and temporal trends in air temperature and evaporative demand in Florida: implications for climate adaptation

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月24日

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  • Dong-Hyeon Kim,
  • Younggu Her,
  • Jonathan Crane,
  • Clyde Fraisse

摘要

Understanding long-term air temperature trends is critical for addressing the increasing climate-related challenges facing agriculture, water resources, and infrastructure. This study analyzed over a century of historical daily air temperature data (1892–2022) from 122 weather stations across Florida using NOAAs GHCN-Daily database to investigate spatial, seasonal, and temporal climate trends, including potential evapotranspiration (PET). Over the past 30 years, Florida has experienced statistically significant warming, with annual average air temperature rising by approximately 0.4 °C (1%) relative to the long-term average. Minimum air temperatures increased more rapidly than maximum air temperatures, indicating a pronounced trend of nighttime warming, a key signature of climate change. These trends were most pronounced in South Florida, where concurrent increases in PET suggest growing agricultural water demand and a northward shift in hardiness zones. In contrast, portions of North Florida exhibited cooling in maximum and minimum air temperatures, likely influenced by Arctic air intrusions and regional atmospheric variability. A statistically significant changepoint around 2014 marked the onset of an accelerated warming phase across much of the state. These findings underscore Florida’s climatic complexity and regional heterogeneity, emphasizing the need for tailored, data-driven adaptation strategies. By providing a high-resolution, region-specific assessment of air temperature and evaporative demand, this study offers valuable insights for climate resilience planning in agriculture, water management, and infrastructure development.