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<p>This paper analyses changes in the frequency of freeze-thaw cycles in high-latitude and mountainous regions of the Northern Hemisphere. The aim is to evaluate thermal conditions conducive to frost weathering processes, accounting for the spatial variability of climate characteristics and trends observed over 1971–2020. We selected 30 meteorological stations representing polar, alpine, subpolar oceanic, and subarctic climates. Using daily mean and extreme air temperatures, we calculated long-term averages for the number of freeze-thaw days (FTD), ice days (ID), frost-free days (FFD), and other related parameters. These metrics served as the basis for clustering stations to identify similarities in climatic conditions favourable to frost-related processes. As a result, the stations were grouped into four distinct clusters. Our analysis indicates that global warming contributes to a universal decline in the number of ID. However, trends in FTD vary: they are increasing in the coldest regions and decreasing in the warmest ones. Notably, long-term trends in FTD exhibit significant variability, influenced by seasonal changes, climate zone, proximity to oceans, and regional orographic features. In winter, warming leads to more frequent freeze-thaw cycles, increased occurrences of “rain-on-snow” events, and the formation of various surface ice deposits, such as hoarfrost, glaze ice, and black ice.</p>

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Long-term trends of freeze-thaw cycles in the Northern Hemisphere

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年12月29日

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  • Krzysztof Migała,
  • Małgorzata Wieczorek,
  • Marek Kasprzak,
  • Andrzej Traczyk

摘要

This paper analyses changes in the frequency of freeze-thaw cycles in high-latitude and mountainous regions of the Northern Hemisphere. The aim is to evaluate thermal conditions conducive to frost weathering processes, accounting for the spatial variability of climate characteristics and trends observed over 1971–2020. We selected 30 meteorological stations representing polar, alpine, subpolar oceanic, and subarctic climates. Using daily mean and extreme air temperatures, we calculated long-term averages for the number of freeze-thaw days (FTD), ice days (ID), frost-free days (FFD), and other related parameters. These metrics served as the basis for clustering stations to identify similarities in climatic conditions favourable to frost-related processes. As a result, the stations were grouped into four distinct clusters. Our analysis indicates that global warming contributes to a universal decline in the number of ID. However, trends in FTD vary: they are increasing in the coldest regions and decreasing in the warmest ones. Notably, long-term trends in FTD exhibit significant variability, influenced by seasonal changes, climate zone, proximity to oceans, and regional orographic features. In winter, warming leads to more frequent freeze-thaw cycles, increased occurrences of “rain-on-snow” events, and the formation of various surface ice deposits, such as hoarfrost, glaze ice, and black ice.