Scholarlink

<p>Projected increases in tropical cyclone (TC) intensity and sea level rise (SLR) are expected to worsen storm surges. This study assesses their individual and combined impacts on 20 historical TCs along the U.S. Atlantic Coast using the ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) model. Hindcasts were generated using best track data, followed by experiments assessing surge responses to projected SLR and stronger TCs. Results show that SLR effects vary by location and metric, with surge heights generally decreasing near the present-day shoreline but increasing further inland. With 0.74 m SLR, maximum surge can decrease by up to 0.7 m, while the area-averaged surge increases by up to 0.1 m, indicating inland water redistribution. Increased TC intensity generally raises both maximum and mean surge heights across all SLR scenarios. A 10% increase in TC intensity can elevate maximum surge by over 1 m and expand inundated areas by up to 25% under present-day sea level and up to 400% with 0.74 m of SLR. We also find that the effect of TC intensity increase is nonlinear with SLR for maximum surge but approximately linear for area-averaged surge. Finally, for TCs with similar landfall locations, greater absolute intensity increases lead to higher surge increases under present-day sea levels. Under SLR, we find a similar response only for TCs impacting gently sloped shelves. For steeply sloped shelves, faster forward speed tends to produce greater increases in storm surge.</p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

Combined impacts of hurricane strengthening and global mean sea level rise on future Atlantic storm surge events

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年12月10日

查看全文
  • Derrick K. Danso,
  • Christina M. Patricola-DiRosario,
  • Karthik Balaguru

摘要

Projected increases in tropical cyclone (TC) intensity and sea level rise (SLR) are expected to worsen storm surges. This study assesses their individual and combined impacts on 20 historical TCs along the U.S. Atlantic Coast using the ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) model. Hindcasts were generated using best track data, followed by experiments assessing surge responses to projected SLR and stronger TCs. Results show that SLR effects vary by location and metric, with surge heights generally decreasing near the present-day shoreline but increasing further inland. With 0.74 m SLR, maximum surge can decrease by up to 0.7 m, while the area-averaged surge increases by up to 0.1 m, indicating inland water redistribution. Increased TC intensity generally raises both maximum and mean surge heights across all SLR scenarios. A 10% increase in TC intensity can elevate maximum surge by over 1 m and expand inundated areas by up to 25% under present-day sea level and up to 400% with 0.74 m of SLR. We also find that the effect of TC intensity increase is nonlinear with SLR for maximum surge but approximately linear for area-averaged surge. Finally, for TCs with similar landfall locations, greater absolute intensity increases lead to higher surge increases under present-day sea levels. Under SLR, we find a similar response only for TCs impacting gently sloped shelves. For steeply sloped shelves, faster forward speed tends to produce greater increases in storm surge.