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<p>Located in a highly climate-sensitive region, the subtropical Lake Kinneret is expected to undergo significant changes in the coming decades. It is a monomictic lake situated between subtropical and arid climatic belts, where warmer and drier atmospheric conditions are expected to develop, as highlighted in IPCC reports. Changes in the lake’s stratification properties have been already observed and are predicted to become more pronounced. Using high-resolution projections from COSMO-CLM and low-resolution projections from MIROC5 atmospheric simulations to drive a 3D hydrodynamic model, we reveal an unexpected abrupt cooling of the lake’s water around the year 2065 despite the climatic warming. This cooling is preceded by a weakening of stratification starting around 2055. Model results indicate a significant reduction in the Bowen ratio, with latent heat flux becoming predominant over sensible heat flux. Consequently, evaporative cooling events lead to enhanced mixing and a warmer hypolimnion. The degradation of stratification stability continues until an abrupt shift to high mixing potential and a colder water column occurs. This internal negative feedback, which restrains the lake’s warming, can be indicative of unexpected outcome of climate warming in subtropical lakes worldwide.</p>

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Projected cooling in a subtropical lake despite climate warming

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年12月3日

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  • Yael Amitai,
  • Yoav Levi,
  • Edoardo Bucchignan

摘要

Located in a highly climate-sensitive region, the subtropical Lake Kinneret is expected to undergo significant changes in the coming decades. It is a monomictic lake situated between subtropical and arid climatic belts, where warmer and drier atmospheric conditions are expected to develop, as highlighted in IPCC reports. Changes in the lake’s stratification properties have been already observed and are predicted to become more pronounced. Using high-resolution projections from COSMO-CLM and low-resolution projections from MIROC5 atmospheric simulations to drive a 3D hydrodynamic model, we reveal an unexpected abrupt cooling of the lake’s water around the year 2065 despite the climatic warming. This cooling is preceded by a weakening of stratification starting around 2055. Model results indicate a significant reduction in the Bowen ratio, with latent heat flux becoming predominant over sensible heat flux. Consequently, evaporative cooling events lead to enhanced mixing and a warmer hypolimnion. The degradation of stratification stability continues until an abrupt shift to high mixing potential and a colder water column occurs. This internal negative feedback, which restrains the lake’s warming, can be indicative of unexpected outcome of climate warming in subtropical lakes worldwide.