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<p>Amidst climate change and low-carbon agricultural transition, understanding how climate risk affects farmland systems’ carbon mitigation and sequestration capacity (CMSC) is critically important. Using panel data from 281 Chinese cities spanning 2001–2022, this study develops two indicators—agricultural carbon ecological carrying capacity (ECC) and net agricultural carbon sink per unit area (NCS)—which reflect “relative responsibility capacity” and “absolute mitigation level” respectively, to quantify CMSC. We empirically examine the impact of climate risk on CMSC and identify the underlying mitigation mechanisms. Key findings indicate: (1) ECC declined initially and then stabilized, while NCS showed a continuous improvement; (2) Climate risk significantly reduces CMSC mainly by diminishing crop production capacity and farmers’ income, though it also induces adaptive adjustments in production structure that partially offset these losses; (3) Agricultural insurance and technological innovation effectively alleviate climate risk’s adverse effects; (4) These negative impacts are particularly pronounced in agriculture-specialized cities. Our study provides new insights into climate risk mechanisms and offers support for the design of tailored low-carbon agricultural policy.</p>

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Can farmland systems sustain carbon mitigation and sequestration capacity under climate risk? Evidence from 281 cities in China

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年12月9日

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  • Tian Qi,
  • Guangkai Xiong,
  • Wenxin Liu,
  • Minjuan Zhao

摘要

Amidst climate change and low-carbon agricultural transition, understanding how climate risk affects farmland systems’ carbon mitigation and sequestration capacity (CMSC) is critically important. Using panel data from 281 Chinese cities spanning 2001–2022, this study develops two indicators—agricultural carbon ecological carrying capacity (ECC) and net agricultural carbon sink per unit area (NCS)—which reflect “relative responsibility capacity” and “absolute mitigation level” respectively, to quantify CMSC. We empirically examine the impact of climate risk on CMSC and identify the underlying mitigation mechanisms. Key findings indicate: (1) ECC declined initially and then stabilized, while NCS showed a continuous improvement; (2) Climate risk significantly reduces CMSC mainly by diminishing crop production capacity and farmers’ income, though it also induces adaptive adjustments in production structure that partially offset these losses; (3) Agricultural insurance and technological innovation effectively alleviate climate risk’s adverse effects; (4) These negative impacts are particularly pronounced in agriculture-specialized cities. Our study provides new insights into climate risk mechanisms and offers support for the design of tailored low-carbon agricultural policy.