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<p>This study is the first to apply spatial filtering unconditional quantile regression to assess how climate indicators—freezing degree days, heating degree days, ice days, and precipitation—affect the distribution of winter road operation days in the Northwest Territories, Canada, accounting for spatial and threshold effects. The results show heterogeneous and nonlinear effects across the winter road distribution, highlighting that climate impacts are not uniform. By integrating the results with downscaled climate data under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, the results reveal reductions in winter road operation days from 2021 to 2095, ranging from −2 to −7 days under RCP2.6, −3 to −11 days under RCP4.5, and −5 to −21 days under RCP8.5 relative to the historical baseline. These reduction days have economic implications, decreasing the total amount of full-time employment by −0.04 to −0.12, salaries by −3,600 to −6,400 CAD, economic value by −9.7 to −30 million CAD, and local GDP by −5,300 to −12,000 CAD relative to the historical baseline. The outcome of this study underlines the need to implement climate policies to alleviate the consequences of reduced winter road operations.</p>

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Beyond the mean: quantile-based insights into climate impacts on Arctic winter roads

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年12月19日

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  • Eugene Adjei,
  • Fatma Ahmed,
  • Oscar Zapata,
  • Greg Poelzer

摘要

This study is the first to apply spatial filtering unconditional quantile regression to assess how climate indicators—freezing degree days, heating degree days, ice days, and precipitation—affect the distribution of winter road operation days in the Northwest Territories, Canada, accounting for spatial and threshold effects. The results show heterogeneous and nonlinear effects across the winter road distribution, highlighting that climate impacts are not uniform. By integrating the results with downscaled climate data under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, the results reveal reductions in winter road operation days from 2021 to 2095, ranging from −2 to −7 days under RCP2.6, −3 to −11 days under RCP4.5, and −5 to −21 days under RCP8.5 relative to the historical baseline. These reduction days have economic implications, decreasing the total amount of full-time employment by −0.04 to −0.12, salaries by −3,600 to −6,400 CAD, economic value by −9.7 to −30 million CAD, and local GDP by −5,300 to −12,000 CAD relative to the historical baseline. The outcome of this study underlines the need to implement climate policies to alleviate the consequences of reduced winter road operations.