Can increases in the adaptive capacity of the United States offset increased exposure to climate change? This commentary examines how adaptive capacity of the U.S. changed in the approximate quarter century since the first U.S. National Climate Assessment (NAST 2000). At that time, I assumed U.S. adaptive capacity would increase over coming decades and possibly offset at least to some degree increased exposure to climate change. To analyze how adaptive capacity changed over the last quarter century, I examine the change in determinants of adaptive capacity (Smit et al. 2001) and add life expectancy as a measure of U.S. health. Some determinants of adaptive capacity in the U.S., such as income and information have clearly improved, while other determinants, such as equity and institutions have become worse (i.e., less equitable income distribution and less faith in U.S. institutions). Technology, infrastructure, education, and health had some net improvement, but the rate of improvement of technology decreased, the overall quality of U.S. infrastructure remains poor, and gains in education and health were largely offset by the Covid-19 pandemic. In addition, the country’s ability to take action to prepare for climate change has been substantially weakened because of increased distrust of institutions and political polarization. Given that climate change risks have increased in the same time period (USGCRP, 2023) and adaptive capacity appears not to have improved much on the whole if at all, one can argue that over the last quarter century, the United States became more vulnerable to climate change.
