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<p>How growers adjust land-use decisions to a changing climate has important consequences for food supplies and environmental impact. In this paper, we examine changes in agricultural land use as an adaptive response to long-term climate impacts, using unique parcel-level data in Central Valley, California – a major agricultural hub worldwide. We combine parcel-specific acreage decisions and climate normal to assess the climate-induced land use transition. We find that growers in the Central Valley are transitioning from annual crops to perennial crops in response to changing climates. Summer degree days and total precipitation increased the share of perennial crops, and projected declines in winter chill hours are also expected to increase the share of perennial crops in the Central Valley. Analysis of land-use with heterogeneous land quality suggests that the share of perennial crops increased 11% in high-quality lands and 7% in low quality lands.</p>

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Climate-induced changes in agricultural land use: parcel-level evidence from California’s Central Valley

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年3月17日

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  • Siddharth Kishore,
  • Mehdi Nemati,
  • Ariel Dinar,
  • Cory L. Struthers,
  • Scott MacKenzie,
  • Matthew S. Shugart

摘要

How growers adjust land-use decisions to a changing climate has important consequences for food supplies and environmental impact. In this paper, we examine changes in agricultural land use as an adaptive response to long-term climate impacts, using unique parcel-level data in Central Valley, California – a major agricultural hub worldwide. We combine parcel-specific acreage decisions and climate normal to assess the climate-induced land use transition. We find that growers in the Central Valley are transitioning from annual crops to perennial crops in response to changing climates. Summer degree days and total precipitation increased the share of perennial crops, and projected declines in winter chill hours are also expected to increase the share of perennial crops in the Central Valley. Analysis of land-use with heterogeneous land quality suggests that the share of perennial crops increased 11% in high-quality lands and 7% in low quality lands.