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<p>It is widely believed that climate change will reduce the yield of grain crops. To confirm or refute it, the authors carried out the mathematical modeling of the influence of climatic changes on the yield of winter wheat in some areas of the Cherkasy oblast, located in the forest-steppe zone of Ukraine. In the first stage, they constructed a mathematical model of the dependence of the yield of this crop on air temperature and rainfall. In the second stage, they generated a mathematical model of winter wheat yield in one of the considered raions and performed calculations. The conducted modeling showed that the median of the winter wheat yield distribution function in the Drabivskyi raion in the future period of 2030–2060 will exceed the historical values of this indicator for 2005–2020 with a probability of 0.7. Moreover, with a probability of 0.4, the yield of winter wheat in the Drabivskyi raion in the future period of 2030–2060 will exceed 50.7 c / ha. At the same time, the maximum yield in this area will not exceed 71.4 c/ha.</p>

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Simulating the Impact of Climate Changes on the Yield of Winter Wheat in the Forest-Steppe Agro-Climatic Zone of Ukraine (Cherkasy Oblast)

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年1月1日

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  • V. A. Pepelyaev,
  • A. N. Golodnikov,
  • N. A. Golodnikova

摘要

It is widely believed that climate change will reduce the yield of grain crops. To confirm or refute it, the authors carried out the mathematical modeling of the influence of climatic changes on the yield of winter wheat in some areas of the Cherkasy oblast, located in the forest-steppe zone of Ukraine. In the first stage, they constructed a mathematical model of the dependence of the yield of this crop on air temperature and rainfall. In the second stage, they generated a mathematical model of winter wheat yield in one of the considered raions and performed calculations. The conducted modeling showed that the median of the winter wheat yield distribution function in the Drabivskyi raion in the future period of 2030–2060 will exceed the historical values of this indicator for 2005–2020 with a probability of 0.7. Moreover, with a probability of 0.4, the yield of winter wheat in the Drabivskyi raion in the future period of 2030–2060 will exceed 50.7 c / ha. At the same time, the maximum yield in this area will not exceed 71.4 c/ha.