Mathematical Modeling of the Economic Impacts of the Covid-19 Pandemic*

To study the relationship between the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic and the state of the economy, the authors developed a stochastic model that covers the epidemic and economic blocks and the system of relationships between them. Based on the three-sector Lorenz model, they have proposed an approach to analyze the interrelationships between economic sectors related to food production, food supply chains, and the healthcare industry. The model combines the above economic sectors in a single structure and considers each sector in terms of productivity, the number of jobs, and the structural disturbance levels. The authors carried out model studies to analyze the dependence of the dynamics of the pandemic on the initial conditions and parameters for managing the epidemic process and the impact of the pandemic on changes in the balance of supply and demand in sectors of the economy related to food production, food transportation, and the healthcare industry.