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<p>In view of the production forecasting problem in Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage (SAGD) heavy oil development, this study proposes a novel SAGD production forecasting model. The research first introduces the model from the perspectives of overall framework, data sources and preprocessing, and model method selection. On this basis, a case study is carried out with data from a domestic oilfield to demonstrate the application of the SAGD production forecasting model, providing a foundation for improving the prediction accuracy. The results show that the constructed model can effectively capture the dynamic variation characteristics of production, with the average relative error controlled within 5%. Its fitting accuracy is significantly superior to traditional empirical models and numerical simulation methods. The conclusion indicates that the SAGD production forecasting model not only provides a reliable tool for production prediction in SAGD development, but also offers theoretical support and practical value for optimizing injection–production parameters and improving the efficiency of heavy oil resource development.</p>

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Heavy Oil Production Forecasting Using Steam-Assisted Gravity Drainage

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月1日

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  • Lu Jia,
  • Guowei Shi,
  • Xing Lu,
  • Yawen Jiang,
  • Xuedan Zhao,
  • Junhao Li

摘要

In view of the production forecasting problem in Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage (SAGD) heavy oil development, this study proposes a novel SAGD production forecasting model. The research first introduces the model from the perspectives of overall framework, data sources and preprocessing, and model method selection. On this basis, a case study is carried out with data from a domestic oilfield to demonstrate the application of the SAGD production forecasting model, providing a foundation for improving the prediction accuracy. The results show that the constructed model can effectively capture the dynamic variation characteristics of production, with the average relative error controlled within 5%. Its fitting accuracy is significantly superior to traditional empirical models and numerical simulation methods. The conclusion indicates that the SAGD production forecasting model not only provides a reliable tool for production prediction in SAGD development, but also offers theoretical support and practical value for optimizing injection–production parameters and improving the efficiency of heavy oil resource development.