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<p>Continental shale oil is characterized by tight reservoirs, strong heterogeneity, high oil viscosity, and poor mobility. The “horizontal well + closely spaced volume fracturing” approach is the key to its efficient development. However, field production shows that due to the influence of geological, engineering, and production system factors, production and pressure frequently fluctuate. Conventional production decline prediction methods are highly sensitive to data variations, making it challenging to effectively predict the production dynamics in this region. Focusing on the production characteristics of Jimusar lacustrine mixed shale oil wells, this study employs a normalized production decline model that simultaneously incorporates the effects of pressure and production (normalized production decline model) to analyze the production dynamics of shale oil wells in this area. The study also proposes a corresponding process for predicting the ultimate recoverable reserves (EUR) of single wells in Jimusar lacustrine mixed shale oil using this method. The findings demonstrate the feasibility and advantages of the normalized production decline method for such production wells, providing valuable insights and references for EUR prediction in similar production wells.</p>

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Study and Analysis of Normalized Production Decline in Shale Oil

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年3月1日

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  • Chenghua Ou,
  • Bang Du,
  • Peipei Guo,
  • Shixuan Peng,
  • Chenggang Liang

摘要

Continental shale oil is characterized by tight reservoirs, strong heterogeneity, high oil viscosity, and poor mobility. The “horizontal well + closely spaced volume fracturing” approach is the key to its efficient development. However, field production shows that due to the influence of geological, engineering, and production system factors, production and pressure frequently fluctuate. Conventional production decline prediction methods are highly sensitive to data variations, making it challenging to effectively predict the production dynamics in this region. Focusing on the production characteristics of Jimusar lacustrine mixed shale oil wells, this study employs a normalized production decline model that simultaneously incorporates the effects of pressure and production (normalized production decline model) to analyze the production dynamics of shale oil wells in this area. The study also proposes a corresponding process for predicting the ultimate recoverable reserves (EUR) of single wells in Jimusar lacustrine mixed shale oil using this method. The findings demonstrate the feasibility and advantages of the normalized production decline method for such production wells, providing valuable insights and references for EUR prediction in similar production wells.