Scholarlink

Purpose <p>To analyze global trends in the non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) burden from 1990 to 2021 and forecast future trajectories from 2022 to 2045.</p> Methods <p>Using data from the GBD 2021 Study, we extracted age-standardized incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rates and estimated their average annual percent changes (AAPCs). Age-period-cohort models were constructed to assess temporal trends, and decomposition analysis identified drivers of burden changes. Future projections were generated using the Nordpred model.</p> Results <p>From 1990 to 2021, the global incidence of NHL increased (AAPC = 0.53; 95% CI: 0.50–0.56), whereas mortality (AAPC = –&#xa0;0.41) and DALY rates (AAPC = –&#xa0;-0.60) decreased. Aging accounted for 35% of incident cases, population growth accounted for 49%, and epidemiological changes accounted for –&#xa0;14%. By 2045, projected cases, and deaths are expected to reach 985,820 and 437,933 respectively.</p> Conclusion <p>The global burden of NHL continues to increase in terms of incident cases, whereas mortality and DALY rates show declining trends. Aging and population growth are the primary drivers. By 2045, NHL will still be a substantial public health challenge. High SDI regions should address workforce shortages and treatment costs, while low SDI regions need investments in early detection and infection control programs.</p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

Global trends in the burden of non-Hodgkin Lymphoma: a comprehensive analysis from 1990 to 2045

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月22日

查看全文
  • Shuangling Wang,
  • Jun Wang,
  • Jianxiong Lin

摘要

Purpose

To analyze global trends in the non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) burden from 1990 to 2021 and forecast future trajectories from 2022 to 2045.

Methods

Using data from the GBD 2021 Study, we extracted age-standardized incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rates and estimated their average annual percent changes (AAPCs). Age-period-cohort models were constructed to assess temporal trends, and decomposition analysis identified drivers of burden changes. Future projections were generated using the Nordpred model.

Results

From 1990 to 2021, the global incidence of NHL increased (AAPC = 0.53; 95% CI: 0.50–0.56), whereas mortality (AAPC = – 0.41) and DALY rates (AAPC = – -0.60) decreased. Aging accounted for 35% of incident cases, population growth accounted for 49%, and epidemiological changes accounted for – 14%. By 2045, projected cases, and deaths are expected to reach 985,820 and 437,933 respectively.

Conclusion

The global burden of NHL continues to increase in terms of incident cases, whereas mortality and DALY rates show declining trends. Aging and population growth are the primary drivers. By 2045, NHL will still be a substantial public health challenge. High SDI regions should address workforce shortages and treatment costs, while low SDI regions need investments in early detection and infection control programs.