On the road from deserts to forests: spatiotemporal modelling of owl road mortality in Israel
摘要
Road networks are an increasing source of wildlife mortality and owls (Strigiformes) are especially vulnerable, because their low-altitude foraging and frequent use of road edges bring them into close contact with vehicles. We analysed 2,631 owl mortality reports collected across Israel between 2008 and 2024, derived from public submissions and routine monitoring, which were validated by Israel Nature and Parks Authority (INPA) rangers. Among 1,014 cases with identified anthropogenic causes, 65.8% were attributed to vehicle collisions, making roadkill the most frequent identified anthropogenic cause in eight of the ten species. Species-specific temporal models provided little support for consistent long-term trends in road mortality; most species showed pronounced interannual variability, whereas Barn Owls (Tyto alba) exhibited a clear non-linear trajectory with an increase during the early years followed by a decline later in the time series. Spatial risk modelling indicated that collision risk was strongly structured by landscape composition and configuration, with fragmentation-related metrics (e.g., patch density, contiguity, and edge structure) and land-cover composition explaining much of the spatial variation. Forest-associated species were most at risk in fragmented, edge-dominated mosaics near developed areas, whereas open country species showed elevated risk in lowland agricultural landscapes intersected by peri-urban infrastructure. Despite inherent limitations of opportunistic reporting, integrating temporal trend analysis with landscape-based risk mapping consistently highlighted high-risk zones and provides an evidence base for targeted mitigation to reduce owl road mortality in rapidly urbanising regions.