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<p>Global climate change and land-use transformations are intensifying the biodiversity crisis, especially in Mediterranean ecosystems. In Chile, where only 2% of this region is protected, highly diverse reptile communities are increasingly threatened by habitat loss due to urban expansion and climate change. Here, we assess climate-change impacts on reptile biodiversity in Chile’s Mediterranean region and evaluate the role of protected areas (PAs) in mitigating these impacts. Using species distribution models, we projected current range distributions and future range shifts for reptile species in the short (2041–2060) and medium (2061–2080) term. We then analyzed shifts in three biodiversity metrics: species richness, phylogenetic diversity, and functional richness under medium (SSP 245) and high (SSP 585) emission scenarios and assessed the potential role of PAs as climate refugia in Chile’s Mediterranean region. Results showed significant declines in all biodiversity metrics in the central Chilean Matorral, especially in the medium term under SSP 585. PAs could act as refugia, maintaining or providing improved climatic and habitat conditions that may allow up to 60% of species to expand their ranges within the network. Nevertheless, their effectiveness is limited because they underrepresent the areas that in current and future conditions support the highest reptile biodiversity. These findings highlight the need for an integrated management in the Chilean Mediterranean that combines the expansion and connection of PAs with mitigation and restoration actions in the surrounding matrix. Strategies that explicitly consider taxonomic, phylogenetic, and functional dimensions and their future shifts, will help to ensure long-term reptile conservation.</p>

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Climate change drives short- and medium-term shifts in reptile distribution in chile’s mediterranean region: are protected areas acting as biodiversity refuges?

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月24日

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  • Nadia Vicenzi,
  • Agustina Novillo,
  • Leonardo D. Bacigalupe

摘要

Global climate change and land-use transformations are intensifying the biodiversity crisis, especially in Mediterranean ecosystems. In Chile, where only 2% of this region is protected, highly diverse reptile communities are increasingly threatened by habitat loss due to urban expansion and climate change. Here, we assess climate-change impacts on reptile biodiversity in Chile’s Mediterranean region and evaluate the role of protected areas (PAs) in mitigating these impacts. Using species distribution models, we projected current range distributions and future range shifts for reptile species in the short (2041–2060) and medium (2061–2080) term. We then analyzed shifts in three biodiversity metrics: species richness, phylogenetic diversity, and functional richness under medium (SSP 245) and high (SSP 585) emission scenarios and assessed the potential role of PAs as climate refugia in Chile’s Mediterranean region. Results showed significant declines in all biodiversity metrics in the central Chilean Matorral, especially in the medium term under SSP 585. PAs could act as refugia, maintaining or providing improved climatic and habitat conditions that may allow up to 60% of species to expand their ranges within the network. Nevertheless, their effectiveness is limited because they underrepresent the areas that in current and future conditions support the highest reptile biodiversity. These findings highlight the need for an integrated management in the Chilean Mediterranean that combines the expansion and connection of PAs with mitigation and restoration actions in the surrounding matrix. Strategies that explicitly consider taxonomic, phylogenetic, and functional dimensions and their future shifts, will help to ensure long-term reptile conservation.