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<p>Among the highly diverse amphibians of the Atlantic Forest (AF), and deviating from the usually biphasic reproductive mode, are direct-developing frogs. Predicting how species will respond to climate change scenarios and knowing the effectiveness of protected areas (PAs) are essential for planning conservation strategies. Thus, the present study aimed to (i) model current and future distributions of 16 direct-developing anuran species of the genus <i>Ischnocnema</i>; (ii) predict changes in the distributions of these species under two climate change scenarios (moderate and extreme) for 2050 and 2090; and (iii) evaluate the degree of protection of these species in the AF. Distribution models were generated for the 16 species using the ensemble of small models approach, incorporating four different algorithms, five general circulation models, and scenarios considering land-use as well as both full and no-dispersal models. The direct-developing anurans’ protection degree was evaluated through the mean percentage overlay and compared among PAs types (integral protection, sustainable use, and both together). Results predicted substantial changes in the distribution areas of these species, including significant distribution area losses for some species. All 16 species are currently overrepresented by the PAs, with a future tendency for increases in the overlapping of their distributions by PAs, except by sustainable use PAs. The PAs also serve as true strongholds for these species. These areas will likely have even greater importance for direct-developing anurans conservation in the future which will face possible losses to their distribution areas and greater restriction to PAs.</p>

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Amphibian strongholds: protected areas and the future of direct-developing frogs of the genus Ischnocnema in the Atlantic forest under climate change

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年10月10日

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  • Rodrigo Barbosa Fontana,
  • Fernanda Thiesen Brum,
  • Camila Both,
  • Sandra Maria Hartz

摘要

Among the highly diverse amphibians of the Atlantic Forest (AF), and deviating from the usually biphasic reproductive mode, are direct-developing frogs. Predicting how species will respond to climate change scenarios and knowing the effectiveness of protected areas (PAs) are essential for planning conservation strategies. Thus, the present study aimed to (i) model current and future distributions of 16 direct-developing anuran species of the genus Ischnocnema; (ii) predict changes in the distributions of these species under two climate change scenarios (moderate and extreme) for 2050 and 2090; and (iii) evaluate the degree of protection of these species in the AF. Distribution models were generated for the 16 species using the ensemble of small models approach, incorporating four different algorithms, five general circulation models, and scenarios considering land-use as well as both full and no-dispersal models. The direct-developing anurans’ protection degree was evaluated through the mean percentage overlay and compared among PAs types (integral protection, sustainable use, and both together). Results predicted substantial changes in the distribution areas of these species, including significant distribution area losses for some species. All 16 species are currently overrepresented by the PAs, with a future tendency for increases in the overlapping of their distributions by PAs, except by sustainable use PAs. The PAs also serve as true strongholds for these species. These areas will likely have even greater importance for direct-developing anurans conservation in the future which will face possible losses to their distribution areas and greater restriction to PAs.