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<p>Under climate change, many functional processes may be disrupted by induced changes in the distribution of key species. Sea urchins contribute significantly to both the CaCO₃ cycle, through bioerosion, and to herbivory, helping to control macroalgae growth, which affects reef structure and improves reef resilience. In certain regions, they assume a leading role in both processes. Thus, regional losses of sea urchin populations could potentially affect coral reefs in the Western Atlantic. Here, we modeled the potential distribution of three widely distributed sea urchin species from the Tropical Western Atlantic (<i>Lytechinus variegatus</i>, <i>Echinometra lucunter</i> and <i>Tripneustes ventricosus</i>) under three future climate change scenarios for the year 2100 (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 1, 2 and 3) considering a set of biologically relevant environmental variables. Species distributions were modeled using a Log-Gaussian Cox Process model in a Bayesian framework. We also used a mechanistic model to assess how changes in the thermal regime alone can lead to distributional changes. Distribution models predicted poleward range expansions for all studied species, but no major suitability loss in the areas where the species are currently distributed (except for <i>L. variegatus</i>). However, the realized thermal niche analysis indicates thermal regimes that exceed the historical range experienced by the species, threatening their natural occurrence in several zones of the Caribbean. Our results highlight that achieving the targets outlined in the Paris Agreement, limiting global warming to well below 2&#xa0;°C above pre-industrial levels, is crucial to ensure the persistence of sea urchins on coral reefs throughout the Tropical Western Atlantic.</p>

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A thorny future for sea urchins in the tropical Western Atlantic

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年10月22日

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  • Silas C. Principe,
  • Andre L. Acosta,
  • Tito M. C. Lotufo

摘要

Under climate change, many functional processes may be disrupted by induced changes in the distribution of key species. Sea urchins contribute significantly to both the CaCO₃ cycle, through bioerosion, and to herbivory, helping to control macroalgae growth, which affects reef structure and improves reef resilience. In certain regions, they assume a leading role in both processes. Thus, regional losses of sea urchin populations could potentially affect coral reefs in the Western Atlantic. Here, we modeled the potential distribution of three widely distributed sea urchin species from the Tropical Western Atlantic (Lytechinus variegatus, Echinometra lucunter and Tripneustes ventricosus) under three future climate change scenarios for the year 2100 (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 1, 2 and 3) considering a set of biologically relevant environmental variables. Species distributions were modeled using a Log-Gaussian Cox Process model in a Bayesian framework. We also used a mechanistic model to assess how changes in the thermal regime alone can lead to distributional changes. Distribution models predicted poleward range expansions for all studied species, but no major suitability loss in the areas where the species are currently distributed (except for L. variegatus). However, the realized thermal niche analysis indicates thermal regimes that exceed the historical range experienced by the species, threatening their natural occurrence in several zones of the Caribbean. Our results highlight that achieving the targets outlined in the Paris Agreement, limiting global warming to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, is crucial to ensure the persistence of sea urchins on coral reefs throughout the Tropical Western Atlantic.