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<p>Tunas are among the most valuable marine resources and some of the most popular seafood worldwide, traded on a global scale. Not only do they support the livelihoods of fishers, they also play a crucial ecological role as both predators and prey. The challenges already faced by fisheries governance in managing these highly migratory species are likely to intensify due to climate-induced changes. This study investigates potential shifts in habitat suitability and geographical distribution of the most captured tuna species in the Atlantic Ocean by 2030 and 2050, across three Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (i.e., SSP1-2.6, 4–6.0, and 5-8.5; CMIP6) using species distribution models (SDM) through MaxEnt. Its findings indicate the start of a potential poleward shift in tuna distribution as early as 2030, accompanied by significant declines in habitat suitability at lower latitudes. This trend poses a risk of range restriction or even local extinction of this group in equatorial regions. Given the socioeconomic importance of tuna species, predicting their responses to climate change could inform effective management strategies ensuring not only the sustainability of tuna populations but also the livelihoods of the communities that depend on them. Future research should incorporate the potential impact of changing environmental conditions on fishing intensity, as this will further shape the long-term distribution of these species.</p>

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Projecting climate change impacts on the distribution of the most captured tuna species on Atlantic waters

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年7月9日

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  • Priscila M. Silva,
  • Francisco O. Borges,
  • Cristina Pita,
  • José Lino Costa,
  • Célia M. Teixeira

摘要

Tunas are among the most valuable marine resources and some of the most popular seafood worldwide, traded on a global scale. Not only do they support the livelihoods of fishers, they also play a crucial ecological role as both predators and prey. The challenges already faced by fisheries governance in managing these highly migratory species are likely to intensify due to climate-induced changes. This study investigates potential shifts in habitat suitability and geographical distribution of the most captured tuna species in the Atlantic Ocean by 2030 and 2050, across three Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (i.e., SSP1-2.6, 4–6.0, and 5-8.5; CMIP6) using species distribution models (SDM) through MaxEnt. Its findings indicate the start of a potential poleward shift in tuna distribution as early as 2030, accompanied by significant declines in habitat suitability at lower latitudes. This trend poses a risk of range restriction or even local extinction of this group in equatorial regions. Given the socioeconomic importance of tuna species, predicting their responses to climate change could inform effective management strategies ensuring not only the sustainability of tuna populations but also the livelihoods of the communities that depend on them. Future research should incorporate the potential impact of changing environmental conditions on fishing intensity, as this will further shape the long-term distribution of these species.