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<p>The insect-borne bacterium <i>Xylella fastidiosa</i> is one of the most damaging plant pathogens affecting perennial crops in Europe since its first detection in 2013. Although its spread has remained geographically constrained, recent outbreaks and surveillance data suggest that larger areas of southern Europe may be transitioning into a second wave of invasion, shifting from localized outbreaks detected after extensive establishment to the early emergence of epidemics in more connected continental landscapes with coexisting lineages. Here, we examine how global change may reshape the invasion dynamics of <i>X. fastidiosa</i> across Europe. Drawing on evidence from national surveys, epidemiological models, and evolutionary studies, we develop a mechanistic framework linking introduction pressure through trade, the expansion and connectivity of invasion hotspots, strain coexistence, and the role of natural ecosystems as pathogen reservoirs and dispersal corridors. We argue that climate change may increase the likelihood that broader regions exceed the critical thermal thresholds required for sustained transmission following introduction. At the same time, repeated introductions of the bacterium and long-term persistence in heterogeneous landscapes may foster the accumulation of genetic diversity and increase evolutionary risk. Finally, we discuss implications for disease management, emphasizing the need to integrate biosecurity, surveillance, and control strategies with the ecological and evolutionary processes shaping invasion under ongoing global change.</p>

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Emerging risk of Xylella fastidiosa in Europe under global change

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月3日

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  • Eduardo Moralejo,
  • Maria Saponari,
  • Donato Boscia,
  • Blanca B. Landa

摘要

The insect-borne bacterium Xylella fastidiosa is one of the most damaging plant pathogens affecting perennial crops in Europe since its first detection in 2013. Although its spread has remained geographically constrained, recent outbreaks and surveillance data suggest that larger areas of southern Europe may be transitioning into a second wave of invasion, shifting from localized outbreaks detected after extensive establishment to the early emergence of epidemics in more connected continental landscapes with coexisting lineages. Here, we examine how global change may reshape the invasion dynamics of X. fastidiosa across Europe. Drawing on evidence from national surveys, epidemiological models, and evolutionary studies, we develop a mechanistic framework linking introduction pressure through trade, the expansion and connectivity of invasion hotspots, strain coexistence, and the role of natural ecosystems as pathogen reservoirs and dispersal corridors. We argue that climate change may increase the likelihood that broader regions exceed the critical thermal thresholds required for sustained transmission following introduction. At the same time, repeated introductions of the bacterium and long-term persistence in heterogeneous landscapes may foster the accumulation of genetic diversity and increase evolutionary risk. Finally, we discuss implications for disease management, emphasizing the need to integrate biosecurity, surveillance, and control strategies with the ecological and evolutionary processes shaping invasion under ongoing global change.