Scholarlink

<p>Understanding future plant invasion under climate change can enhance conservation strategies aimed at preserving the unique values of natural areas. In this study we aimed to map the current and future distribution of eight invasive plant species within Kaziranga National Park &amp; Tiger Reserve, Assam, India, under future climate scenarios (SSP 2–4.5 and SSP 5–8.5 for 2050 and 2070, respectively). We used hierarchical species distribution models at regional and global scales. To enhance management relevance, we developed a novel invasion hotspot mapping approach by filtering model outputs based on high-impact predictors, enabling targeted identification of high-risk areas. Field surveys conducted from 2019 to 2021 provided species occurrence data for regional scale models, while global scale models used Global Biodiversity Information Facility datasets. We found that the current projected distribution of <i>Parthenium hysterophorus</i> (100 km<sup>2</sup>) was the highest, followed by <i>Mikania micrantha</i> (90 km<sup>2</sup>). Under future climate scenarios, <i>Ageratum conyzoides</i>, <i>Ipomoea carnea</i>, <i>P. hysterophorus</i> and <i>M. micrantha</i> were projected to increase their distribution. Specifically, <i>A. conyzoides</i> and <i>M. micrantha</i> were predicted to experience the largest increases, each expanding their distribution by 6%. We found that anthropogenic variables contributed 48% to relative variable importance in our regional models, while bioclimatic and soil variables contributed 17% and 15%, respectively. Among the anthropogenic variables, proximity to roads was a strong predictor of the distribution of all species. To assist management planning, we identified specific areas that will require regular monitoring to reduce the future spread of multiple invasive plant species. We recommend minimizing forest roads and other development activities within protected areas to limit further spread of invasive plant species.</p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

Anthropogenic and climate driven risks of multi-species plant invasions in Sub-Himalayan grassland ecosystems

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年5月12日

查看全文
  • Jyotish Ranjan Deka,
  • Umar Saeed,
  • Rashmi Das,
  • Sk. Zeeshan Ali,
  • Rabindra Sharma,
  • Ruchi Badola,
  • Syed Ainul Hussain

摘要

Understanding future plant invasion under climate change can enhance conservation strategies aimed at preserving the unique values of natural areas. In this study we aimed to map the current and future distribution of eight invasive plant species within Kaziranga National Park & Tiger Reserve, Assam, India, under future climate scenarios (SSP 2–4.5 and SSP 5–8.5 for 2050 and 2070, respectively). We used hierarchical species distribution models at regional and global scales. To enhance management relevance, we developed a novel invasion hotspot mapping approach by filtering model outputs based on high-impact predictors, enabling targeted identification of high-risk areas. Field surveys conducted from 2019 to 2021 provided species occurrence data for regional scale models, while global scale models used Global Biodiversity Information Facility datasets. We found that the current projected distribution of Parthenium hysterophorus (100 km2) was the highest, followed by Mikania micrantha (90 km2). Under future climate scenarios, Ageratum conyzoides, Ipomoea carnea, P. hysterophorus and M. micrantha were projected to increase their distribution. Specifically, A. conyzoides and M. micrantha were predicted to experience the largest increases, each expanding their distribution by 6%. We found that anthropogenic variables contributed 48% to relative variable importance in our regional models, while bioclimatic and soil variables contributed 17% and 15%, respectively. Among the anthropogenic variables, proximity to roads was a strong predictor of the distribution of all species. To assist management planning, we identified specific areas that will require regular monitoring to reduce the future spread of multiple invasive plant species. We recommend minimizing forest roads and other development activities within protected areas to limit further spread of invasive plant species.