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<p>Despite positioning itself as a global reference in hydroelectricity, Brazil faces considerable challenges due to the recent reduction in energy production. The presence of invasive macrophytes in reservoirs, notably <i>Urochloa subquadripara</i>, and the effects of climate change adversely impact the efficiency of hydroelectric plants, including in strategic locations such as Itaipu. The use of Species Distribution Models becomes crucial for assessing invasion risk and understanding the spatio-temporal dynamics of the species. The present study focused on examining the spatio-temporal dynamics of <i>U. subquadripara</i> in Brazil, establishing correlations with the location and area of hydroelectric reservoirs aiming for an in-depth analysis of the risk of invasion. The Growth Index (GI) generated for the country and the Itaipu hydroelectric plant region revealed a positive correlation between the GI and the frequency of the species. The reported presence of <i>U. subquadripara</i> in approximately 15 reservoirs and the high risk of invasion in 23 of the main national hydroelectric plants highlight the urgency and scope of the problem. The broad climatic adaptation of <i>U. subquadripara</i> throughout the year in Brazilian territory, combined with the occurrence of the species and the lack of effective control strategies, raises serious concerns due to the potential compromise in the generation of hydroelectricity. The identification of places at risk is crucial, highlighting the importance of preventive strategies, which are not only more economical, but also essential compared to containment or control alternatives. This study enriches understanding and outlines approaches to address these critical challenges.</p> Graphical abstract <p></p>

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Impact of Urochloa subquadripara invasion on hydroelectricity generation: a risk analysis

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年1月23日

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  • Tayna Sousa Duque,
  • Ricardo Siqueira da Silva,
  • Iasmin Marcella Souza,
  • Fernanda Santos Oliveira,
  • Danielle Piuzana Mucida,
  • José Barbosa dos Santos

摘要

Despite positioning itself as a global reference in hydroelectricity, Brazil faces considerable challenges due to the recent reduction in energy production. The presence of invasive macrophytes in reservoirs, notably Urochloa subquadripara, and the effects of climate change adversely impact the efficiency of hydroelectric plants, including in strategic locations such as Itaipu. The use of Species Distribution Models becomes crucial for assessing invasion risk and understanding the spatio-temporal dynamics of the species. The present study focused on examining the spatio-temporal dynamics of U. subquadripara in Brazil, establishing correlations with the location and area of hydroelectric reservoirs aiming for an in-depth analysis of the risk of invasion. The Growth Index (GI) generated for the country and the Itaipu hydroelectric plant region revealed a positive correlation between the GI and the frequency of the species. The reported presence of U. subquadripara in approximately 15 reservoirs and the high risk of invasion in 23 of the main national hydroelectric plants highlight the urgency and scope of the problem. The broad climatic adaptation of U. subquadripara throughout the year in Brazilian territory, combined with the occurrence of the species and the lack of effective control strategies, raises serious concerns due to the potential compromise in the generation of hydroelectricity. The identification of places at risk is crucial, highlighting the importance of preventive strategies, which are not only more economical, but also essential compared to containment or control alternatives. This study enriches understanding and outlines approaches to address these critical challenges.

Graphical abstract