Scholarlink

<p>This study presents an integrated probabilistic seismic hazard and risk assessment for Hunza District, northern Pakistan, a tectonically active high-mountain valley characterized by complex seismicity, vulnerable building stock, and concentrated exposure. The framework combines probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, logic-tree epistemic uncertainty, and a district-wide exposure model of 8,470 buildings across 15 structural typologies. Hazard analysis indicates regionally elevated ground-motion demand under reference-rock conditions, with measurable internal spatial differentiation, where PGA ranges from 0.44 to 0.46&#xa0;g at the 475-year return period and from 0.62 to 0.68&#xa0;g at the 2475-year return period. This hazard pattern reflects the combined influence of shallow crustal and deep intraslab seismicity. Integrated risk analysis shows that district-scale seismic risk is governed by the interaction of elevated regional hazard, class-dependent structural vulnerability, and concentrated exposure in the valleys. Non-engineered masonry and adobe classes account for the majority of expected losses, whereas reinforced concrete systems contribute a comparatively smaller share despite their higher per-building replacement values. Under the adopted reference-rock conditions, the spatial distribution of loss is controlled more by exposure concentration and structural vulnerability than by moderate internal variation in rock-site hazard; whether this ranking holds when valley-floor site amplification is incorporated remains unresolved. These findings demonstrate that, in distributed-source mountain environments, hazard establishes the regional loading envelope, whereas vulnerability and exposure composition exert the primary control on the spatial pattern and intensity of seismic consequence. The study provides a regional baseline benchmark for seismic risk prioritization in high-mountain valleys; actual site-level losses may be higher where valley-fill amplification is significant.</p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

Integrated probabilistic seismic hazard and risk assessment of Hunza District, northern Pakistan

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年8月3日

查看全文
  • Muhammad Waseem,
  • Muhammad Shafique,
  • Waqas Ahmed,
  • Sarfraz Khan

摘要

This study presents an integrated probabilistic seismic hazard and risk assessment for Hunza District, northern Pakistan, a tectonically active high-mountain valley characterized by complex seismicity, vulnerable building stock, and concentrated exposure. The framework combines probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, logic-tree epistemic uncertainty, and a district-wide exposure model of 8,470 buildings across 15 structural typologies. Hazard analysis indicates regionally elevated ground-motion demand under reference-rock conditions, with measurable internal spatial differentiation, where PGA ranges from 0.44 to 0.46 g at the 475-year return period and from 0.62 to 0.68 g at the 2475-year return period. This hazard pattern reflects the combined influence of shallow crustal and deep intraslab seismicity. Integrated risk analysis shows that district-scale seismic risk is governed by the interaction of elevated regional hazard, class-dependent structural vulnerability, and concentrated exposure in the valleys. Non-engineered masonry and adobe classes account for the majority of expected losses, whereas reinforced concrete systems contribute a comparatively smaller share despite their higher per-building replacement values. Under the adopted reference-rock conditions, the spatial distribution of loss is controlled more by exposure concentration and structural vulnerability than by moderate internal variation in rock-site hazard; whether this ranking holds when valley-floor site amplification is incorporated remains unresolved. These findings demonstrate that, in distributed-source mountain environments, hazard establishes the regional loading envelope, whereas vulnerability and exposure composition exert the primary control on the spatial pattern and intensity of seismic consequence. The study provides a regional baseline benchmark for seismic risk prioritization in high-mountain valleys; actual site-level losses may be higher where valley-fill amplification is significant.